Aluminum prices decline, while cost supports secondary aluminum prices to remain stable temporarily [Daily review of ADC12 prices]

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SMM reported on July 2:

On the futures market, the most-traded cast aluminum alloy futures contract 2511 opened at 19,950 yuan/mt today, with a high of 19,965 yuan/mt and a low of 19,825 yuan/mt. It closed at 19,885 yuan/mt, down 80 yuan/mt or 0.40% from the previous close. Trading volume was 3,705, and open interest was 9,250, with bulls mainly reducing their positions during the day.

In the spot market, SMM A00 aluminum prices fell by 90 yuan/mt from the previous day to 20,700 yuan/mt, while the SMM ADC12 price range remained stable at 20,000-20,200 yuan/mt. Entering July, factors such as the high-temperature off-season and high aluminum prices continued to impact downstream orders, with some downstream companies initiating production reduction modes. Despite active inquiries from futures and spot traders during the week and an increase in trading volume of delivery brands, the end-use consumption market remained sluggish, posing a key resistance to price increases. Faced with the dual pressures of raw material supply deficits and weak market demand, some secondary aluminum manufacturers have temporarily halted furnace operations for maintenance or reduced their operating rates. Overall, without substantial improvement in demand, prices encounter resistance on the upside, but the cost support logic remains intact. It is expected that secondary aluminum alloy prices will maintain a rangebound fluctuation in the short term.

In the import market, the CIF quotes for imported ADC12 remained stable at 2450-2480 US dollars/mt, with imported spot prices hovering around 19,200 yuan/mt and immediate import losses around 800 yuan/mt. The local tax-excluded quotes for ADC12 in Thailand were concentrated at 82-83 Thai baht/kg.

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